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30 dead as Kenya bus plunges into river | The Guardian Nigeria News

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Thirty people were killed when a bus plunged into a river in central Kenya at a notorious accident blackspot, a local official said Monday.

The accident occurred late Sunday when the bus was travelling from the town of Meru to the coastal city of Mombasa.

The bus plunged off a bridge about 40 metres (about 130 feet) into the Nithi River valley below.

Pictures published in the local media showed the bus ripped apart after rolling down the steep slope, with reports saying wreckage and bodies were strewn in the water and on the river bank.

Twenty people died on the spot on Sunday, while four died in hospital and another six bodies were recovered on Monday, county commissioner Norbert Komora told reporters.

“The search is still on and we are trying to retrieve the wreckage,” he said.

“Investigations are still going on to establish the cause of the accident that occurred at the Nithi blackspot.”

The number of people killed on Kenya’s roads has increased in recent years.

In the first half of 2022, 1,912 people were killed, up nine percent from 1,754 in the same period last year, according to figures from the National Transport and Safety Authority.

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July 25, 2022
Is Nigeria falling off the fiscal cliff? | The Guardian Nigeria News

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It will take the Federal Government, at least, seven and half years to pay its existing N36.78 trillion debt – which is about 88 per cent of the N41.6 trillion national public debt stock – if it saves 100 per cent of its retained earnings at the current value.

And if the outstanding N19.1 trillion overdrafts and advances it owes the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are included, it will take the government 11 years and five months to pay up supposing the debt and revenue are held constant and it saves every kobo it earns.

But these are extremely simplistic scenarios. For a start, no government can save 100 per cent of its revenue. Secondly, in modern economics, national sovereign debt is a flow, which means it is meant to be measured over a period of time. Yet, in discussing debt sustainability, the carrying capacity of an economy is a key consideration.

The foreign exchange dynamics also pushes the oversimplified supposition too far from reality to deserve a serious thought but that a country can suspend its responsibilities, including salary payment, for over a decade just to clear its debt shows the severity of the country’s indebtedness.

Indeed, the challenge has ballooned beyond the government’s capacity as shown in recent data and that has raised concern about the possibility of default in the near term. Some economists, including the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and ex-Nigeria’s finance minister, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, had warned that the country’s level of borrowing was becoming unsustainable. But as expected, the caution was met with pushback from government officials who were expected to advise the government appropriately.

From N12.06 trillion the current administration inherited seven years ago, the country’s public debt has jumped by 245 per cent to N41.6 trillion as at March 31, 2022. Plus, the CBN’s ways and means (W&M) facilities, which were estimated at N19.1 trillion at the last count, the Federal Government and sub-national entities currently sit on N60.7 trillion debt, albeit minus the undocumented amount. The figure is 83.9 per cent of the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP), estimated at N72.39 trillion last year.

Plotted against the global debt-to-GDP ratio, which rose to 263 per cent according to economists at Brookings, Nigeria’s debt to GDP is not much of a problem. But the revenue potential of the drivers of the GDP, such as agriculture, are poor, with the government rather spending to keep the sectors afloat. Also, debts are serviced with revenues rather than GDPs.

Nigeria’s debt to GDP is still at a moderate level, the debt servicing to government revenue has soared to a frightening level, in recent years. It hit 81.1 per cent in 2020 but the government dismissed the enormity of the challenge, hiding under the COVID-19 alibi while it went for more loans.

Last year, the ratio of debt servicing to revenue rose by 1500 basis points to 96 per cent. Yet, the government said there was no option for debt financing, with the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, saying Nigeria is still too undeveloped to shun the debt market. From the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, to the Director General of the Budget Office, Dr. Ben Akabueze, and his colleague at the Debt Management Office, Patience Oniha, national economic managers are used to echoing the same refrain – low revenue profile and not the expenditure is the problem – in defence of the borrowing spree. They did little about the falling revenues but give endless reasons to justify more debt requests.

Today, the hole created by the imbalance between falling revenue profile and fast-growing expenditure has expanded into an abyss that is threatening to swallow the country. Media headlines had never been scarier than what the citizens have read in the past five days.

In the first four months of the year, the FG spent N1.93 trillion on debt servicing amid plummeting revenue mobilisation, which put the retained earnings at N1.63 trillion in the same period. That pushed the debt to revenue ratio to 118 per cent, the first time the figure would hit or exceed 100 per cent. By implication, the government would need to borrow to meet its obligation supposing its financial need was fulfilling its obligation to existing creditors.

Of course, there were other pressing obligations. Personnel cost gulped N1.26 trillion, leaving only N773.6 billion for all-important capital expenditure (CAPEX) out of the total spending outlay of N4.72 trillion, implying that only 16 per cent of the spending went into infrastructure stock, a key driver of growth. Debt servicing and personnel took as much as 84 per cent of the total expenditure and amounted to almost 200 per cent of the earned revenue.

The fiscal performance update presented alongside the 2023-2025 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategic Paper (MTEF and FSP) estimated the revenue performance at 49 per cent as the prorated target for the period was N3.32 trillion.

And that is not surprising. In the first quarter, oil output dropped to its lowest level in recent history, averaging 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd). According to the budget performance overview presented by Ahmed, production went up to 1.4 million bpd at the start of this quarter but slumped to 1.25 million bpd in May. June data are not available, but with no efforts made to reduce oil theft, the figures may be annualised.

The government hoped to gross N9.37 trillion from oil and gas revenue in the year as projected during the appropriation. But despite the spike in international oil prices, which exceeded the budget benchmark by a wide margin, only N1.23 trillion was realised as at the end of April 30. The figure translates to 39 per cent in actual performance, and the finance minister attributed the shut-ins to pipeline vandalism and crude oil theft. She promised that the situation would improve in the second half of the year following “concerted efforts” to address the challenges but there are no specifics of the efforts.

Added to the dreary fiscal position is the controversial premium motor spirit (PMS) subsidy. The annualised retained revenue of the Federal Government is only about 20 per cent higher than N4 trillion earmarked for this year’s subsidy.

In all of these, the government is bogged down with important unfulfilled commitments it makes vain efforts to trivialise. For instance, its running battle with the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and its unwillingness or inability to pay its indebtedness to the body has shut the ivory towers since February. There are other unkept promises – to the Nigeria Union of Teachers and other trade unions, which Prof. Godwin Owoh (an economist) said it should be added to the sovereign debt stock.

Historical data on the country’s fiscal position could be dismissed as backward-looking. But even the future does not appear to inspire hope, at least not as the government has envisaged it. In its best scenario analysis, it hopes to spend N3.36 trillion on PMS subsidies next year. That assumes that provision would be made for only six months into the year, reflecting the earlier announcement extending the social scheme by 18 months.

Under business as a usual assumption, which is most likely as subsidy removal has become a moving target, PMS subsidy will gulp N6.7 trillion. If this assumption holds, the government could incur as much as 137 per cent of its retained revenue, estimated at this year’s performance so far, on subsidy payment. The opportunity cost of spending that much on subsidy is health, education or infrastructure investment that will be sacrificed.

Should subsidy payment continue beyond the middle of next year, the finance minister confirmed that it “is not feasible to make any provision for MDAs’ capital expenditure” beyond the multilateral/bilateral loan-funded and donor-funded projects in the appropriation projected at N16.98 trillion, with a fiscal deficit estimate of N10.5 trillion. Assuming subsidy removal reform is achieved, the fiscal space could expand, allowing FG to earn N8.46 trillion and raise the spending limit to N17.99 trillion. That will put the fiscal deficit at N9.53 trillion or about 13 per cent of the country’s real GDP, which is above the three per cent threshold stipulated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA).

Meanwhile, some of the revenue targets and parameters are more of a statement or hope as they do not reflect recent data. For instance, the crude production output is estimated at 1.69 million bpd for 2023 and 1.83 million bpd for 2024 and 2025. In contrast with recent output data, some of which were presented in the same document, the estimates may be spurious – the sorts that have raised fiscal deficit above projected level in the past years. The last time Nigeria achieved the 1.69 million bpd mark was 2020 when the production was 1.7 million bpd. Since then, output has hovered between 1.12 million and 1.48 million bpd. This suggests that the fiscal hole could be wider than contemplated by the medium-term plan, meaning the government would need to borrow much more than it is currently doing.

Where would the debt come from? Beyond debt sustainability issues, the era of free market risk is gone with monetary easing. Commercial lenders are not expanding their balance sheets anymore just as premium on risky assets is rising very fast – a reason Nigeria’s 10-year Eurobond yield has risen from 8.6 per cent at the end of the first quarter to over 14 per cent.

A recent report by The Guardian said the country has been priced out of the international market, making it difficult for the country to access the market for refinancing or fresh facilities. The report was published in June. If anything has changed since then, jerkeddeteriorated with the country’s sovereign bond yield rising further to about 15 per cent.

The government is left with the domestic debt market option but the odds are increasing with the aggressive rate hike move of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Last week, the interest rate was jacked up from 13 to 14 per cent with a promise that the policy option will be sustained should inflation remain uptrend. Besides, the governmnt, if it chooses to look inward for fresh loans, also risks crowding out private sector operators, who are battling a harsh operating environment across the board.

The three pillars of supply-side economics, where analysts tie the country’s production challenges, are tax, regulatory and monetary policy. Government has hinted that there is sufficient headroom in the first stream as Nigeria’s tax to GDP is among the lowest in the world. Unfortunately, it is currently not in a mood when it cannot tell, which of its desperate actions could make things go irreversibly wrong.

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July 25, 2022
Delta PDP: Governorship controversy lingers | The Guardian Nigeria News

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• Party missing in INEC’s provisional list
• What’s playing out is democracy in action, says Okowa
• We duly submitted, uploaded Oborevwori’s name before INEC deadline, insists PDP

The controversy regarding who is the authentic governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Delta State is not about to end. Indeed, it got more so last weekend when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the list of participating political parties and candidates in the state, with PDP missing in the list of 16.

This was just as the party held a mega rally in Ozoro, Isoko North Local Council, to mobilise members and receive decampees from other political parties. Absent at the rally were former governors of the state, Chief James Ibori and Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan; governorship aspirants, Senator James Manager and Olorogun David Edevbie, and other major stakeholders, unlike the earlier pre-primary election rally in Asaba, ostensibly as a fallout of the party’s primary election in May this year.

Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Oborevwhori Sheriff Francis Orowedor, with the backing of Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, won the primary election held in Asaba, while a former commissioner for Finance and Okowa’s immediate past chief of staff, Edevbie, who is the choice of Ibori for the position, came second, in what many see as proxy political battle of dominance. A dissatisfied Edevbie later approached the Federal High Court in Abuja, in suit No: FHC/ABJ/CJ/795/2022, seeking the disqualification of Oborevwori for allegedly submitting fake credentials to the INEC and declaration of himself as the candidate.

Justice Taiwo Taiwo, on July 7, ruled that Oborevwori was not qualified to participate in the exercise, let alone being declared winner, having supplied false information and submitted forged credentials/certificates, and ordered INEC to recognise Edevbie as the PDP candidate. Oborevwori has since appealed the lower court judgment. Armed with that judgment, Edevbie, through his lawyers, wrote to the INEC, urging it to comply with the court order by replacing Oborevwori’s name with his without further delay.

Consequently, INEC, in a letter to the PDP national chairman of PDP dated July 18, 2022 and signed by its Secretary, Rose Oriaran-Anthony, acknowledged receipt of the court order served by the court in the case between David Edevbie and Sheriff Oborevwori and two others, adding: “While hoping your party takes note of the judgment Order, please accept the assurance of the Commission’s warm regards.” It was, therefore, surprising that the controversy continued last Friday night, when INEC omitted PDP and its candidate in the provisional list for Delta State.

While Oborevwori’s supporters insisted that he remained the authentic candidate for next year’s election, it was obvious that the electoral body refrained from publishing the particulars of any of the aspirants, pending when the party is able to resolve its internal crisis. That position was reinforced by PDP in a statement on Saturday by its National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, who insisted that it indeed has a valid governorship candidate, as it followed all due process to ensure its participation in the election in the state. He stated that contrary to speculations, the PDP never disobeyed any court order regarding its governorship election in the state. According to him: “In line with the new Electoral Act, submission of names of candidates is no longer physical but by electronic transmission to the INEC. Under the electronic process, INEC grants access to its portal to political parties to electronically upload its candidates’ information/particulars; which access for governorship candidates closed on Friday, July 15, 2022.

“With reference to Delta State, our party duly submitted and uploaded the name of Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor as the Delta State Governorship candidate of the PDP onto INEC Portal on Friday, July 8, 2022.

“On July 18, 2022, three days after the closure of access to the INEC portal, our party and INEC received a court Order directing the substitution of the name of Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor with another name. “However, given the closure on July 15, 2022, our party had no access to the INEC portal.” He added: “Subsequently, the PDP and INEC were served with Court of Appeal processes comprising Notice of Appeal, Motion for Stay of Execution and Records of Appeal filed by the candidate whose name was initially uploaded by the party onto the INEC portal.

“It is instructive to state that under the INEC guideline, the last day for effecting any change of names of candidates for the 2023 general election is September 28, 2022.

“For emphasis, the PDP currently has a candidate for the 2023 governorship election in Delta State. If there be any change drawing from the outcome of the judicial processes, such will be duly and appropriately reflected in compliance with the Order of court. The PDP as a law-abiding party has always and will continue to comply with Orders of court in every matter and situation.

“Our party therefore urges our members, teeming supporters and the people of Delta State to disregard the speculations and remain focused on the platform of the PDP in their determination to consolidate on the achievements of the Governor of Delta State and our vice presidential candidate, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa. “The PDP is fully prepared for the 2023 general elections in Delta State, as well as across the nation and will emerge victorious at the polls.” PDP insisted that it has a valid governorship candidate, as it followed all due process to ensure its participation in the election in the state. He stated that contrary to speculations, the PDP never disobeyed any court order regarding its governorship election in the state.

At the rally held at the Delta State University of Science and Technology Stadium, Ozoro, Okowa described what is going on as “a normal democratic process,” adding “there is nothing to worry about, no cause for alarm and no cause to fear, as what is playing out is democracy in action.” State Chairman of the party, Chief Kingsley Esiso, said: “As the state chairman of this great party, it is my responsibility to educate our people on developments in the party. Weeks ago, our party conducted one of the freest and fairest governorship primaries in the state and a candidate emerged and our party has dutifully submitted the name of that candidate.

“It is our responsibility to stand and defend the outcome of that primary. The issue before the court has nothing to do with the integrity and credibility of that primary. “By the action of INEC yesterday (Friday), we have been told in PDP to wait patiently for the outcome of the court judgment.” He added that the winner (Oborevwori), through his legal team, with the PDP will defend the mandate of its candidate in the court.

The party used the rally, attended by Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Ndudi Elumelu and Oborevwori, who was tactfully recognised only as Speaker of the state Assembly, apparently not to incur the wrath of the court, to welcome several defectors, including Chief Fred Obe and his Grassroots Unity Movement; Chief Solomon Omene, Chief Gladys Agba; Mr. Nwaham Iwendi and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) State Secretary, Chief A.T. Okrakpo, into the PDP fold.  Esiso had earlier reiterated that the primary purpose of the rally was to receive defectors from other parties, saying Nigerians can no longer tolerate a party that has divided the country along ethnic, religious and regional lines.

Speaking further, Okowa said the party’s victory in the recent Osun State governorship election was a pointer to its readiness to rescue the country in next year’s general election, adding that PDP remains the only party that can return the country to better days, assuring that contrary to insinuations in some quarters, the party was strong, virile and united in the state. “In the last seven years, it has not been too well with us as a nation, but we know that God has come to our rescue and it’s just for the PDP to take it and run with it and that sign has already started with our victory in Osun. “We went to the heartland of the APC in Yoruba land to make a statement and to God be the glory.

They did not give PDP a chance, the APC thought it was a done deal, but God showed His mighty hand and when the results started coming, it was unfortunate for the APC. “That is just the beginning and I must thank Nigerians who have come to realise that something has gone wrong and that we need rescue and there is only one party that can rescue Nigeria as at today; it is the PDP. “2023 is about the youth and women of Nigeria and we cannot continue to suffer and stay hungry. We must definitely move forward,” he told the crowd. With both sides unwilling to sheathe the sword, the matter of who is the authentic governorship candidate of the party for 2023 is likely to end at the Supreme Court, even as mobilisation continues ahead of commencement of campaigns in September.

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July 25, 2022
Thousands evacuated as California wildfire grows | The Guardian Nigeria News

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A fierce California wildfire expanded early Sunday burning several thousand acres and forcing evacuations, as tens of millions of Americans sweltered through scorching heat with already record-setting temperatures due to climb even further.

More than 2,000 firefighters backed by 17 helicopters have been deployed against the Oak Fire, which broke out Friday near Yosemite National Park, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) said in a report.

But two days after it began the blaze had already consumed more than 14,200 acres (5,750 hectares) and remained zero percent contained, the report said, adding that heat combined with low humidity would “hamper” efforts Sunday.

“Extreme drought conditions have lead to critical fuel moisture levels,” according CAL FIRE’s report.

Described as “explosive” by officials, the blaze has left ashes, gutted vehicles and twisted remains of properties in its wake, as emergency personnel worked to evacuate residents and protect structures in its path.

It has already destroyed 10 properties and damaged five others, with thousands more threatened.

More than 6,000 people had been evacuated, said Hector Vasquez, a CAL FIRE official.

“It was scary when we left because we were getting ashes on us but we had such a visual of this billowing. It just seemed like it was above our house and coming our way really quickly,” one woman who had to be evacuated, Lynda Reynolds-Brown, told local news station KCRA.

“We started getting our stuff together and that’s when I went back up the hill and looked and I’m like, ‘Oh my God.’ It was coming fast,” her husband Aubrey Brown told the station.

California Governor Gavin Newsom on Saturday declared a state of emergency in Mariposa County, citing “conditions of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property.”

In recent years, California and other parts of the western United States have been ravaged by huge and fast-moving wildfires, driven by years of drought and a warming climate.

Gore blasts ‘inaction’

Evidence of global warming could be seen elsewhere in the country, as 85 million Americans in more than a dozen states were under a weekend heat advisory.

The crisis prompted former vice president Al Gore, a tireless climate advocate, to issue stark warnings Sunday about “inaction” by US lawmakers.

Asked whether he believes US President Joe Biden should declare a climate emergency, as Biden has said he soon might, Gore was blunt.

“Mother Nature has already declared it a global emergency,” he told ABC News talk show “This Week.”

And “it’s due to get much, much worse, and quickly,” he said on NBC.

But he also suggested that recent crises, including deadly heat waves in Europe, could serve as a wake-up call for members of Congress who have so far refused to embrace efforts to combat climate change.

“I think these extreme events that are getting steadily worse and more severe are really beginning to change minds,” he said.

The central and northeast US regions face the brunt of the ongoing extreme temperatures, which were not expected to peak until Sunday and have sent public health officials scrambling.

“Numerous record highs are forecast to be tied and/or broken today in the Northeast as highs make a run at the century mark and heat indices range between 105-110 degrees (40.5-43.3 Celsius),” the National Weather Service said Sunday.

A heat emergency is in effect for cities up and down the northeast coast, from Boston to Philadelphia to Washington.

Not even the usually cool Pacific Northwest will escape the far-reaching heat, with the region expected to face several days in the 90s next week.

Cities have been forced to open cooling stations and increase outreach to at-risk communities such as the homeless and those without access to air conditioning.

Various regions of the globe have been hit by extreme heat waves in recent months, such as Western Europe in July and India in March to April, incidents that scientists say are an unmistakable sign of a warming climate.

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July 24, 2022
Ukraine’s neighbor eyes ‘strongest’ NATO army in Europe — RT World News

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Poland’s military should be large and strong enough for its mere existence to deter “aggressors”, the defense minister says

Poland wants to create the most powerful ground forces among the European members of NATO, the country’s defense minister has said. Mariusz Blaszczak made the remarks in an interview with Sieci magazine, excerpts of which were published on Sunday.

The official said he views Russia, as well as its ally Belarus, as potential adversaries that should be deterred with a powerful military.

“We are on the frontline, we border Russia in the north, and de-facto, in military terms, from the side of Belarus,” Blaszczak said, referring to Poland’s border with Russia’s Kaliningrad Region.

Poland’s ambitious military plans would put it in competition with Germany, as earlier this year Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to make the Bundeswehr the “biggest conventional army” among European NATO states.

“The Polish Army must be so numerous and so strong that its very existence will scare the aggressor away. The Kremlin rulers do not hit the strong – when they see weakness, they attack. Both in terms of artillery and tanks, there will ultimately be no stronger country in Europe [than Poland],” the minister claimed.

Blaszczak said that to protect itself from high-precision strikes – a capability Moscow has demonstrated during the Ukraine conflict – Poland has ordered US-made Patriot anti-aircraft systems, which are expected to be delivered this year. Warsaw will also procure an unspecified anti-aircraft system “identical” to British Sky Saber, the minister added without elaborating.

Poland is currently trying to replenish its weapon stockpiles after it transferred over 200 Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukraine for use in the conflict with Russia. Last week, Blaszczak announced the purchase of some 116 used M1 Abrams main battle tanks from the US, on top of a separate deal to procure 250 new tanks.

Warsaw initially sought to replenish its stocks with German Leopard 2 tanks, but the expected deal failed to materialize, with Polish President Andrzej Duda accusing Berlin of breaking its promise to replace Polish weaponry.

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July 24, 2022
Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 151 | Russia-Ukraine war News
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As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 151st day, we take a look at the main developments.
Here are the key events so far on Sunday, July 24.

Get the latest updates here.

Fighting
- Ukraine’s military reported Russian shelling in numerous locations in the north, south and east, and again referred to Russian operations paving the way for an assault on Bakhmut in the Donbas region.
- Ukraine’s air force command said it had shot down three Kalibr cruise missiles launched by the Russian forces from the Black Sea and aimed at the western Khmelnytskyi region.
- Ukrainian forces are gradually moving into the southern Kherson region, which was taken over by Russia at the start of the war, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late on Saturday.
Diplomacy
- President Zelenskyy said Russian missile strikes on Odesa on Saturday were blatant “barbarism” that showed Moscow could not be trusted to implement the grain deal.
- The United Nations, European Union, United States, United Kingdom, Germany and Italy all condemned the strikes.
- Russia said on Sunday that its cruise missiles had struck military infrastructure at the Odesa port.
- Turkey’s defence minister said on Saturday that Russian officials had told Ankara, which mediated the grain deal along with the US, that Moscow had “nothing to do” with the Odesa strikes.
- A senior US Congressional delegation, including Representative Adam Smith, chair of the House Armed Services Committee, met Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Saturday and promised to try to ensure continued support in the war.
Economy
- Ukraine pressed ahead with efforts to restart grain exports from Odesa and other Black Sea ports after the missile attack.
- Ukraine could export 60 million tonnes of grain in eight to nine months if its ports were not blockaded, but Russia’s strike on the port of Odesa showed it will definitely not be that easy, an economic adviser to the Ukrainian president said.
- The EU is seeking additional gas supplies from Nigeria as the bloc prepares for potential Russian supply cuts, a European Commission energy official said.
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July 24, 2022
Inside story of how Adeleke rode to victory in Osun — Politics — The Guardian Nigeria News – Nigeria and World News

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• Saraki, Diri, Obaseki’s Role Laid Bare

The outcome of the Osun governorship election held last weekend where the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke was declared winner is still a big shock to many Nigerians, especially chieftains of the All Progressives Congress (APC), living outside the state.

However, to the party faithful residing in the state, the defeat had been foretold and was described as a self-inflicted injury.

In the election described by observers as peaceful, free and fair, the incumbent governor and candidate of the APC, Gboyega Oyetola was defeated by Adeleke, who scored 403,371votes to emerge as the governor-elect of the state. Oyetola polled 375,027 votes. Action Democratic Party (ADP) candidate, Kehinde Atanda finished a distant third with 10,104 votes.

The PDP candidate had his first shot at Osun Government House in 2018 in an election that was declared inconclusive, necessitating a controversial supplementary election in seven polling units, after which Adeleke was defeated by 482 votes. But Adeleke held on to his structure and returned to defeat the incumbent governor in 17 local councils while APC won in 13.

The fall of APC in Osun State has kept tongues wagging as to how and why the party could not maintain its hold on the state with most members blaming the unresolved internal crisis among its leaders. It is not a secret that there is no love lost between Oyetola and former governor of the state and Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola. Various efforts by the presidential candidate of the party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Chief Bisi Akande to resolve the crisis were unsuccessful. At some point, the matter created a gulf between Tinubu and Aregbesola, who warned the National Leader of the party to “stop playing God.”

Some members of the ruling party who spoke on condition of anonymity blamed their defeat on the lackadaisical attitude of President Muhammadu Buhari, whom they said refused to intervene directly between Aregbesola and Oyetola after the efforts of Chief Bisi Akande and Tinubu failed to yield result.

The war of attrition between the duo polarised the party. Aregbesola and his supporters had accused Oyetola of reversing most of the policies of his predecessor in office in a manner that cast aspersion on the integrity of the Minister. But the governor, who thought he had to listen to the people’s outcry, did not regret reversing some policies, including the same school uniform for all secondary school students, taking over of all legacy schools by the government, half salaries for workers and other policies that had made Aregbesola unpopular before the end of his tenure.

In reacting to Oyetola’s decisions, Aregbesola’s group, The Osun Progressives (TOP), opposed the governor’s second-term ambition. They sponsored another aspirant, a former Secretary to the State Government, Moshood Adeoti to contest in a parallel primary organised by Aregbesola’s faction of the APC. Oyetola secured the ticket of the main faction and TOP members approached the court seeking to nullify his candidature and recognise the primary election conducted by its faction. But their hopes were dashed on the eve of the election by the judgment of the Appeal Court, which affirmed Oyetola as the party’s candidate.


APC sources disclosed that most members of TOP campaigned and voted for the PDP governorship candidate. “It is unfortunate that it was APC members that worked against the party. We saw them sharing money with people to support Adeleke. We know ourselves, it is no secret, that they gave the victory to Adeleke and PDP.”

It was also gathered that workers in the state had agreed not to vote for Oyetola despite acknowledging he performed better than Aregbesola in terms of welfare and payment of salaries and allowances as and when due. To the workers, most second term governors underperform and do not care about workers welfare.

Some of them who spoke to The Guardian said Aregbesola performed creditably well during his first term in office but suddenly introduced many anti-workers policies in his second term.

One of the civil servants, who pleaded anonymity, told The Guardian that “At this moment, we don’t want a second term governor because of what we went through during Aregbesola’s second term. He suddenly became a monster and paid us half our salary at the period all other states were implementing a new minimum wage.

“Besides, Oyetola was his Chief of Staff for eight years and he cannot completely absolve himself from the anti-people policies of Aregbesola’s administration. Unknown to many, Oyetola has not paid the backlog of salaries Aregbeola owed us. He inherited assets and ran away from a backlog of salaries and allowances. We campaigned against him and enlightened our people not to be persuaded with inducement during election.”

The source said their campaign against vote-buying made many electorate to reject the N10, 000 shared by APC in many polling units to accept any amount PDP offered them. He argued that the money they collected from the PDP was not inducement but “appreciation” because they had made up their minds to vote for the PDP.

Besides, the campaign against APC as a failed party that did not fulfill its campaign promises of restructuring, insecurity, inflation, unemployment and erratic power supply resonated to the grassroots, which made many to seek change.

A party source said, “The performance of the Federal Government did not help us during the campaign. If you didn’t go out and meet people, you won’t know how people loathed our party in the state. Each time we go out on the house-to-house campaign, some questions they asked us about our performances at the federal level and our promises were too difficult to answer because we cannot pretend they are not real.”


A chieftain of the party, Alhaji Saka Adegbite said: “How can we explain that we lost in Ila, Baba Akande’s local council or at Ejigbo and other areas that are APC strongholds. We thought the National Secretary of the party, Senator Iyiola Omisore will deliver all the three local councils in Ile-Ife, but we won two with slight margins. We saw it coming but we never thought it would be this bad.”

It was also discovered that in 2018, APC was strong in about 15 to 16 local councils but due to the infighting, Ife Central where APC and SDP were strong four years ago was overrun by PDP last weekend. Places like Ejigbo, Ila, Ife South, Aiyedire and others were also weakened because of the crisis, giving PDP the advantage.

Ikire and Iwo local councils also fell victim as a result of the APC fracas. Although the likes of Oluwo of Iwo in Iwo local council boasted he would deliver the area to APC, he couldn’t because of the crisis. A former SSG to Aregbesola who also contested the APC governorship primary but lost to Oyetola was strong in Osun West.

The crisis in the party worsened when the party leadership constituted the 2022 Osun State Governorship Council, chaired by Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos and his co-chairman, Governor Umaru Ganduje, who were Tinubu’s right-hand men while excluding Aregbesola’s name. The development pushed most loyalists of the minister out of the party to align with Adeleke.

Last Minute Plot Against Oyetola’s Return
IT was gathered that on the eve of the election, former Deputy Speaker of House of Representatives, Lasun Yussuff, who also left APC to take up the ticket of the Labour Party directed his followers to vote for Adeleke.

In a similar vein, Aregbesola, who deliberately travelled out of the country, also allegedly directed his loyalists to cast their votes for Adeleke to spite the governor.

A chieftain of Osun APC, Alhaji Liad Tella described the victory of PDP “as a triumph of darkness over light” basically due to the protracted infighting among stakeholders in the ruling party. He said all is not lost, promising that the party will soon bounce back.

Fall Out Of 2020 COVID-19 Palliative
Not many people would realise that part of the undoing of APC in Osun State is the manner in which some party members allegedly mismanaged the COVID-19 palliative handouts that were supposed to be distributed to alleviate the people’s suffering then.


A commercial motorcycle, Lani, told The Guardian that Adeleke warmed himself into the hearts of many citizens of Osun not only because he dances but because he is also very caring and kind.

According to him, “Majority of us are furious with the APC government because it is full of deceit and lies. In 2020, the party deliberately hoarded the COVID-19 palliative food items meant to alleviate the suffering of the masses until we discovered the stores and broke into them. Since then, the majority of us had made up our mind that Oyetola will not get a second term.”

Saraki, Diri, Obaseki’s Role In PDP’s Victory
The PDP selected some of its most experienced strategists for the National Campaign Council. In the campaign council, three members devoted more time and resources to the campaigns, particularly in the last few days of the election. The trio, who chose to give more time to the Adeleke campaign, were former Senate President, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, Bayelsa State Governor, Sen. Duoye Diri, and his Edo State counterpart, Mr Godwin Obaseki.

While Diri was the chairman of the National Campaign Council, Obaseki who has known the PDP’s candidate’s elder brother, Deji Adeleke since their days in the financial sector in Lagos also felt obliged to share his experience in similar elections in 2020 when he was seeking re-election and had similar APC forces arrayed against him. His victory strategy was therefore needed and he decided to help the party in the same way the party helped him to defeat the APC forces.


As for Saraki, there were many reasons his interest in seeing PDP and the Adeleke win in Osun State. First, Osun State is a neighbouring state to his own Kwara State and he needed to ensure Osun State would not be used to sabotage PDP in Kwara State in next year’s election. Second, as the chairman of the PDP National Reconciliation and Strategic Committee (NRSC), Saraki handled the resolution of the crisis in the party in the state and is very well aware of the issues, personalities, and need for unity in Osun PDP if the party were to make any impact in the governorship polls. It thus became a challenge for him to help the Adeleke’s in making a last-minute rally of all forces and persons behind the candidate in order to defeat the divided APC.

Third, while his late father, Oloye Olusola Saraki was a colleague of the patriarch of the Adeleke’s in the Second Republic Senate, he and the late eldest brother of the Adeleke’s, Isiaka Adetunji were colleagues in the 7th and 8th Senate. Later, when Ademola, the PDP candidate replaced his late brother in the 8th Senate, he was a loyal supporter of Saraki, who was then Senate President. Fourth, the Saraki and Adeleke families remain the only two nuclear families to have produced three members of the Nigerian Senate respectively. Also, Deji Adeleke, the surviving eldest of the Adeleke brothers is a good friend of Saraki. Thus, for all these reasons, Saraki decided to throw in all the support for the Adeleke.

Saraki and his team moved from Ilorin where he had been since the eve of the last Eid-El- Kabir festival to Ede, the Adelekes’ hometown on Wednesday morning (July 13, 2022) and immediately on arrival went into a meeting with all the PDP polling agents. The venue of the training handled by the former Senate President was the Adeleke University, Ede. There, he shared some strategic lessons with the agents on how to carry out their assignments on polling day. He also emphasised to them the importance of their roles to the success of the party on Election Day.

The presence of such a dignitary not only inspired and encouraged the party agents but also emphasised to them how serious and ready the Osun PDP and the candidate’s campaign were about the election.

After the training session with party agents, Saraki drove back to Osogbo, the state capital with Deji Adeleke, the candidate’s elder brother to join PDP Governors who were getting ready to meet with ex-Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola at his Osogbo GRA residence. The meeting was actually at the instance of Saraki, who believed that Oyinlola was aggrieved and needed to be pacified and appeased to support Adeleke. The party was able to appease Oyinlola and reconciled him with Adeleke.

Saraki went back to Ede that same night to meet with the PDP governorship candidate and his team where the meeting reviewed the preparation for the election and checked if all the necessary boxes had been ticked concerning critical areas of election preparation – security and logistics.

By Thursday morning, Saraki and his team were in Osogbo to coordinate the PDP mega rally. On Friday morning, Saraki commenced another series of meetings with aggrieved party stakeholders from each of the three senatorial districts. The first set was the people from Osun East. This particular one took up most of the day. At the end of the day, the issues appeared resolved and the party seemed ready for a good outing on Saturday.

On Election Day, as early as 6:00 am, Saraki was already in the situation room to start coordination. He was also joined by the two governors to supervise the situation room. They were practically getting reports from party agents, field officers, and observers across the state. The three men and their teams did not sleep until the results were announced in the early hours of Sunday morning.

It was because of their critical roles that soon after being pronounced the winner, Adeleke prostrated before his elder brother, Deji, held tightly to each of Saraki, Diri and Obaseki for their kind interventions that saved the day.

MEANWHILE, unlike in the APC where those who were disgruntled with the party successfully worked against Oyetola’s victory, some of the former PDP chieftains, such as Dr Akin Ogunbiyi; House of Representatives aspirant in Ede Federal Constituency, Ayodele Asalu (Asler); factional state chairman of PDP, Wale Ojo; running mate to the PDP candidate in the 2018 governorship election and former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Albert Adeogun, who left the party angrily to the APC couldn’t wreak much havoc on the party’s chances.

The overwhelming popularity of Adeleke dynasty and the love from people of the state notwithstanding, his shortcomings and controversies surrounding his reported Christian-Christian ticket and capacity worked in favour of the major opposition party.

Also speaking, a member of the Senate, Senator Francis Fadahunsi described the victory as liberation of the poor masses in Osun.

He said: “This is a victory for democracy and liberation for the suffering masses in Osun. We have to thank Senator Bukola Saraki, former Senate President, incoming Vice President of PDP, and Governor Okowa, these are the people that really backed Osun PDP including Adeleke’s senior brother, Deji Adeleke. These are the people who stood by Senator Adeleke to the last.

“We have to also thank Ademola for his large-heartedness and bravery, if not, he would have run away. What will happen in 2023 is already known, we are going to win the presidency and all National Assembly seats with the backing of the incoming Governor Ademola Adeleke and Governor Seyi Makinde. Automatically, we will win the elections with the cooperation of the party leaders. It’s time for Osun to work and Governor-elect Ademola Adeleke is here to make it work,” Fadahunsi said.

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July 24, 2022
US heat wave soars as California wildfire rages | The Guardian Nigeria News

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Tens of millions of Americans already baking in a scorching heat wave braced Saturday for record-setting temperatures to climb, while a major fire ravaged part of California.

The country’s central and northeast regions face the brunt of the extreme temperatures, which are not expected to peak until Sunday at the earliest and have sent public health officials scrambling.

The sweltering heat has also increased the risk of blazes, such as the major Oak Fire, which broke out Friday in California near Yosemite National Park, where giant sequoias have already been threatened by the fire in recent days.

The Oak Fire — described as “explosive” by officials — went from 60 acres to more than 6,555 (2,650 hectares) in less than 24 hours. Concentrated in Mariposa County, it has already destroyed ten properties and damaged five others, with thousands more threatened.

As of midday Saturday, it was zero percent contained, according to California’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

The department said the fire’s activity was “extreme” and that emergency personnel were working to evacuate residents and protect structures.

More than 400 firefighters assisted by water-dropping helicopters are fighting the blaze, the department said, but the Los Angeles Times cited officials who said it could take a week to contain.

“Explosive fire behavior is challenging firefighters,” the department added on its website.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain tweeted that the fire was “exhibiting consistently extreme behavior,” while stunned social media users posted images of billowing plumes of smoke — with the LA Times reporting that the cloud reached up to 30,000 feet into the air.

In recent years, California and other parts of the western United States have been ravaged by huge, hot and fast-moving wildfires, driven by years of drought and a warming climate.

– Record-breaking heat –
Evidence of global warming could be seen elsewhere also, as more than a dozen US states were under a heat advisory.

Central US metropolitan areas such as Dallas and Oklahoma City were expected to reach highs of over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (above 38 degrees Celsius) for at least the next five days.

A heat emergency is in effect for cities up and down the northeast coast, from Boston to Philadelphia to Washington.

Not even the usually cool Pacific Northwest will escape the far-reaching heat, with the region expected to face several days in the 90s next week.

The high temperatures have already caused an uptick in emergency calls for heat-related illnesses.

Cities have, meanwhile, been forced to open cooling stations and increase outreach to at-risk communities such as the homeless and those without access to air conditioning.

“This is really one of the things that we recognize in Oklahoma — heat is the number one weather-related killer across the United States. It far surpasses any other” nature-related cause of death, Joseph Kralicek, director of the Tulsa Area Emergency Management Agency, told CNN.

Residents of the central US city were expecting temperatures to reach 103 degrees Fahrenheit Saturday and up to 106 degrees on Sunday and Monday.

The nation’s capital Washington was predicted to reach temperatures at or near 100 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday, with New York not far behind.

“Look for daytime max temps to eclipse the century mark in the Central Plains and record-breaking high temps from the Central Plains to the Northeast today,” the National Weather Service said in a forecast.

“Sunday grows even hotter in the northeast,” it added.

Severe thunderstorms are expected in the Midwest Saturday, with the potential for damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes, the NWS said.

Various regions of the globe have been hit by extreme heat waves in recent months, such as Western Europe in July and India in March to April, incidents that scientists say are an unmistakable sign of climate change.

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July 23, 2022
Chad rebels return to peace talks | The Guardian Nigeria News

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Several Chadian rebel and political groups have said they are resuming peace talks with the country’s military government in Qatar after pulling out last week.

Around 50 groups have been negotiating for more than four months in Doha, with the aim of holding an inclusive national dialogue to pave the way for elections.

But a host of them withdrew from the talks on July 16, accusing the government of seeking to destabilise peace efforts.

On Saturday, Colonel Adoum Yacoub, a spokesman for 19 groups that had pulled out, told AFP their concerns had been addressed.

“We had discussions with the mediator with whom we shared our grievances in writing and we received all the answers,” he said.

Brahim Hissein, a spokesman for Chad’s main armed opposition movement, the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), said they had spoken to the mediator on Thursday and decided to “give the talks a new chance”.

Government spokesman Abderahman Koulamallah praised “the foresight of (his) brothers”.

On Thursday, the Qatari mediator handed a draft peace agreement to the rebel groups and the Chadian government.

Mahamat Mahdi Ali, the leader of FACT, told AFP: “There are two or three points to discuss… but it’s a good start.”

The impoverished Sahel state was buffeted in April 2021 when its veteran president, Idriss Deby Itno, died fighting rebels, including FACT.

His son, Lieutenant-General Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, immediately took over at the head of a junta.

He dismissed the government, dissolved the parliament and repealed the constitution, vowing to hold “free and transparent” elections in 18 months — a deadline that he said could be postponed once if “certain conditions” were not fulfilled.

The rebel groups who withdrew on July 16 did so less than 24 hours after the younger Deby’s administration announced that a national peace dialogue ahead of elections would start on August 20.

The rebels said the new date had been set without any consultation, describing it as an attempt to “exclude” many of the armed groups and their political allies from the dialogue.

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July 23, 2022
Hundreds protest against Tunisia draft constitution as vote looms | Politics News

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Older and younger generations march in Tunis to reject President Kais Saied’s draft constitution, days ahead of a referendum.

Tunis, Tunisia – Hundreds of people have rallied in Tunis to protest against a draft constitution proposed by President Kais Saied, two days before a planned referendum on the charter.

The National Salvation Front alliance of opposition groups led a march through the Tunisian capital on Saturday to reject the president’s constitution change programme and decried what they call an undemocratic and illegal process.

Many of the protesters were from the older generation, who had lived under former President Zine Abbedine Ben Ali and took part in the 2011 revolution which forced him from office.

Among them was Amna Fehty, an Ennadha supporter who said she was there to “fight for freedom and democracy”.

“We cannot progress or have any power in this world under a dictatorship,” she told Al Jazeera.

“I do not want to see our children live as slaves under a dictator.”

People take part in a protest against President Kais Saied’s draft constitution ahead of a referendum [Zoubeir Souissi/Retuers]

Tension has been rising in the country in advance of the vote amid fears that the draft constitution would serve as the basis of a new hyper-presidential government system.

The referendum is being held one year after Saied suspended the parliament and sacked the government in what his opponents call a power grab. The president said he was responding to the popular will and saving the country from imminent danger.

He soon began ruling by decree and has dismantled some of the country’s democratic state institutions including the Supreme Judicial Council, while pushing for a new constitution, a draft of which was published last month.

The charter would limit the powers of the parliament and judiciary and enshrine the powers he has accumulated over the past year.

A member of the executive committee of the National Salvation Front called Monday’s referendum “another link in a series of illegal events.”

“We are here to state for history that we believe this new constitution is completely illegitimate and will continue to respect the 2014 constitution,” Jaohar ben Mbarek told Al Jazeera.

There were also some younger people among the crowds at Saturday’s rally. They said that Kais Saied is stealing their chance to develop their democracy.

Alabbas Ben Abdennabi, a 22-year-old business studies student, told Al Jazeera “Kais Saied did a coup d’etat, he betrayed the Tunisian people who voted for him … [Saied] wants to be like a sultan.”

Ammen Ekalini, a 20-year-old activist, came to the demonstration with fellow students and said they are undeterred by the referendum and ready to fight for democracy.

“We want the world to know that we are the generation of democracy,” he told Al Jazeera.

“We know how much our parents suffered under dictatorship, they were here [on Avenue Habib Bourguiba, Tunis] in 2011 during the revolution. We know this constitution will go through. It says in Article 139 that whether yes or no wins, it will be activated.”

Duaa Naceur, an 18-year-old high school student, told Al Jazeera, “Saied wants to steal all our rights, but we won’t let him.”

“Our message to the world is: help us rebuild our democracy. We are capable, we can do it.”

Saturday’s peaceful rally followed a protest the previous evening where police arrested several protesters and violently beat activists.

Al Jazeera witnessed violent beatings and use of pepper spray at Friday’s protest.

The Ministry of the Interior said protesters initiated the violence against police.

The Tunisian labour union UGTT condemned the police violence and demanded the release of detainees and a full investigation saying, “We hold the president accountable for this authoritarian deviation.”

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July 23, 2022