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Nope. Both sides will posture for a while and then come up with a shaky agreement that is essentially to stop stressing Ukrainians out and establish it as neutral as possible to west and russia. If they make a good deal, which is hard to imagine with the way diplomacy is going these days, we could even see the civil war in Donbas finally dying out, because nobody would have any interest in stirring shit up anymore. In optimal scenario, Ukraine could even thrive in long term if it was given special treatment from both EU and Russia, not as a battleground, but as an essential entity that guarantees peace in Europe. Wishful thinking, almost, but hey it’s Reddit.
Reasons against war:
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Russia gains nothing by invading Ukraine, it is very likely to be technical success but in every other aspect a nightmare for economy, stability, relations etc. Not to mention that forty million Ukrainians won’t sit on their asses happily occupied and peeling potatoes. Putin is not an idiot.
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US also gains nothing by having Ukraine in NATO, there are no vital interests there, aside from limiting Russian balistic capabilities, which ironically is more likely to make them desperate enough to use them. Which is again, nightmare scenario on a more global scale, even more instability, hostilities in Middle East due to lack of partnership, Vinnie the Pooh and Vlad getting closer. NATO leadership are not idiots.
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Everybody hopefully realizes that if any serious shit breaks out it will draw enough attention and resources that the entire east asia, and Taiwan in particular, would be in deep trouble, thanks to a certain cartoon bear that loves honey very much.
So to sum up, I am optimistic and would suggest that most of the news we’re getting is fear-mongering, and I extend sympathy to the people in Ukraine caught between a cock measuring contest.
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